Real Clear Truth

Michigan was the state that Mitt Romney had to win to stay viable. If he couldn’t win there, given his family background and strong economic message, then it didn’t look like he would be able to win anyplace (except in Utah and Idaho). On the other hand, a McCain win would have given him the clear front-runner status and the all-important momentum.

But the Republicans are very much divided this year. And while McCain gets the support of Independents, they can’t vote in every primary, and they didn’t even come out in the same percent for McCain as they did eight years ago for him. Back then, the Independents were very much against Bush and had a reason to come out to the polls. This time around, Romney wasn’t as loathsome as Bush was (for Independents), it was cold and anyway, Romney isn’t the clear front-runner that needs to be stopped like Bush was.

But now we move on to South Carolina where Huckabee has to win to stay viable, and then on to Florida where Giuliani has to win to even get into the game. You may think their chances are low, but when voters know it’s up to their votes to keep their candidate viable or not, it’s amazing how much that can drive them to come out for their guy. So just because Romney has the latest bump or momentum in his favor, that in no way means he will keep it.

But it’s hard to imagine what will happen if both Huckabee and Giuliani do pull off their wins. When then? What will happen on Super Tuesday? Can any candidate come out of Super Tuesday with the clear front-runner status? Or will the states split who they pick just as much as they have been split up until now?

It is becoming entirely possible that nobody will get enough delegates to win the nomination outright, and that would be quite amazing.