Real Clear Truth

So where do we stand in the primaries? Well, on the Republican side, everything now points to a major contest in Florida on Jan 29th. All four front-runners (Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Huckabee) technically have a shot at winning (see latest polls here). Even Fred Thompson has a chance. However, while McCain’s win in South Carolina may have given him a bounce, the more likely effect is that people will realize he will win the nomination UNLESS they rally around another candidate to beat him.

Since Huckabee failed to overcome McCain in South Carolina, since he failed to win support outside of his evangelical base, and since he has no orginization going into the Super Tuesday primaries, his chances look bleak, and thus people will be tempted to abandon him for somebody else that can beat McCain. Meanwhile, Giuliani has suffered the same fate as Fred Thompson in not working hard enough to win the nomination. Having sat out the earlier primaries, he has watched his support evaporate and go to other candidates. Which leaves Romney as the “go to” guy to stop McCain, and indeed the latest polls are already showing a surge for Romney in Florida.

Regardless, Florida is make or break for most everyone and thus it may well prove to be the turning point in the Republican primary season. If Florida ends up split, with no clear front-runner, then Super-Tuesday will likely mirror this split and we could end up with nobody winning the nomination at the Republican convention on the first round.

I didn’t realize it, but a brokered convention can actually pick someone other than any of the current people running in the race. In other words, the delegates could pick Newt Gingrich, Condi Rice, Bobby Jindal or whoever as the nominee to run in November. Conventional wisdom would suggest that whoever is chosen in such an event would lose the general election, but then maybe the Democrats will run into the same problem, since they are evenly split between Obama and Hillary. A two-way split is less likely to stalemate the Democratic convention, and Hillary would have the edge given her insider network and knowledge, but the divide could still hurt the Democrats enough that Republicans are given a chance.

But for now, the real race to watch is the Republican primary in Florida on the 29th. It is shaping up to be a real horse race where everybody has a chance.